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UEFA Champions League · Play-offs
Paris Saint Germain—Slovan Bratislava
· Parc des Princes
Final score
6–1
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
93%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 93% means the opposite outcome happens about 7% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- PSG
- 93%
- Draw
- 5%
- SLO
- 2%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 43% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Paris Saint Germain's attack: better than ~97% of the teams in the league
- Paris Saint Germain takes 2.34 points per game at home, the opponent 0.88 away
- Slovan Bratislava has 6 declared absences
What could mislead us
- Slovan Bratislava takes 1.75 points per game at home against 0.88 away — two different sides depending on the ground
- Slovan Bratislava has won 4 of its last 6
The full analysis of Paris Saint Germain — Slovan Bratislava
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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