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Major League Soccer
Portland Timbers—Austin
· Providence Park
Final score
1–2
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
63%Over 2.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 63% means the opposite outcome happens about 37% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- POR
- 61%
- Draw
- 20%
- AUS
- 19%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 44% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Austin's defence: tighter than only ~28% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Portland Timbers takes 1.81 points per game at home, the opponent 0.89 away
- Portland Timbers takes 1.81 points per game at home against 0.83 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- Portland Timbers has 10 declared absences
- Austin takes 1.5 points per game at home against 0.89 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The full analysis of Portland Timbers — Austin
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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