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Premier League
Polessya—Livyi Bereh
· Tsentralnyi Stadion
What the model reads
69%Both teams to score: no
A probability, not a prediction: 69% means the opposite outcome happens about 31% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- POL
- 62%
- Draw
- 26%
- LIV
- 12%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 67% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Polessya's attack: better than ~88% of the teams in the league
- Polessya takes 1.58 points per game at home, the opponent 0.25 away
What could mislead us
- The draw still weighs 26%: the outright win is not secured.
- Livyi Bereh takes 1 points per game at home against 0.25 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The full analysis of Polessya — Livyi Bereh
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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