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Ekstraklasa
Pogon Szczecin—Wisla Plock
· Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera
Final score
1–1
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
58%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 58% means the opposite outcome happens about 42% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- POG
- 58%
- Draw
- 23%
- WIS
- 19%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 49% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Pogon Szczecin's attack: better than ~70% of the teams in the league
- Pogon Szczecin takes 1.83 points per game at home, the opponent 1.1 away
- Pogon Szczecin takes 1.83 points per game at home against 1 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- The draw still weighs 24%: the outright win is not secured.
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of Pogon Szczecin — Wisla Plock
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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