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Ekstraklasa
Pogon Szczecin—Wieczysta Kraków
· Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera
What the model reads
69%Over 2.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 69% means the opposite outcome happens about 31% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- POG
- 62%
- Draw
- 20%
- WIE
- 18%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 40% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Pogon Szczecin's attack: better than ~70% of the teams in the league
- Pogon Szczecin takes 1.83 points per game at home against 1 away — two different sides depending on the ground
- Pogon Szczecin scores 2 goals per game at home
What could mislead us
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of Pogon Szczecin — Wieczysta Kraków
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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