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Ekstraklasa
Piast Gliwice—Pogon Szczecin
· Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach
What the model reads
81%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 81% means the opposite outcome happens about 19% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- PIA
- 39%
- Draw
- 30%
- POG
- 31%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 55% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What could mislead us
- Pogon Szczecin's attack: better than ~70% of the teams in the league
- Pogon Szczecin takes 1.83 points per game at home against 1 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The full analysis of Piast Gliwice — Pogon Szczecin
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.