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Major League Soccer
Philadelphia Union—FC Cincinnati
· Subaru Park
Final score
5–0
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
84%Over 1.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 84% means the opposite outcome happens about 16% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- PHI
- 64%
- Draw
- 20%
- FC
- 16%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 44% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- FC Cincinnati's defence: tighter than only ~32% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- FC Cincinnati has 4 declared absences
- Philadelphia Union takes 1.85 points per game at home against 1.21 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- FC Cincinnati's attack: better than ~78% of the teams in the league
- Philadelphia Union has 4 declared absences
The full analysis of Philadelphia Union — FC Cincinnati
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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