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Eredivisie
PEC Zwolle—NEC Nijmegen
· MAC³PARK Stadion
Final score
1–3
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
58%Both teams to score
A probability, not a prediction: 58% means the opposite outcome happens about 42% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- ZWO
- 34%
- Draw
- 27%
- NIJ
- 39%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 45% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- NEC Nijmegen has 10 declared absences
- PEC Zwolle takes 1.57 points per game at home against 0.74 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- NEC Nijmegen's attack: better than ~88% of the teams in the league
- PEC Zwolle's defence: tighter than only ~17% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
The full analysis of PEC Zwolle — NEC Nijmegen
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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