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Serie A
Parma—Monza
· Stadio Ennio Tardini
Final score
1–1
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
77%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 77% means the opposite outcome happens about 23% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- PAR
- 42%
- Draw
- 28%
- MON
- 30%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 51% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Parma takes 1.11 points per game at home, the opponent 0.53 away
- Monza has 10 declared absences
- Monza concedes 2 goals per game away
What could mislead us
- Parma has 6 declared absences
- 3 draws in the last 4 meetings — a historically tight fixture
The full analysis of Parma — Monza
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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