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Super League 1
PAOK—Aris Thessalonikis
· Toumba Stadium
What the model reads
75%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 75% means the opposite outcome happens about 25% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- PAO
- 59%
- Draw
- 25%
- ARI
- 16%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 55% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- PAOK's attack: better than ~91% of the teams in the league
- PAOK takes 2.27 points per game at home, the opponent 1.43 away
- PAOK takes 2.27 points per game at home against 1.28 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- The draw still weighs 25%: the outright win is not secured.
- Aris Thessalonikis has won 6 of its last 6
The full analysis of PAOK — Aris Thessalonikis
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.