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Serie A
Palmeiras—Sao Paulo
· Allianz Parque
Final score
2–0
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
59%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 59% means the opposite outcome happens about 41% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- PAL
- 59%
- Draw
- 24%
- SAO
- 17%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 55% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Palmeiras's attack: better than ~94% of the teams in the league
- Palmeiras takes 2.19 points per game at home, the opponent 0.81 away
- Sao Paulo has 6 declared absences
What could mislead us
- Palmeiras has 10 declared absences
- The draw still weighs 24%: the outright win is not secured.
The full analysis of Palmeiras — Sao Paulo
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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