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Serie B
Palermo—Padova
· Stadio Renzo Barbera
What the model reads
56%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 56% means the opposite outcome happens about 44% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- PAL
- 56%
- Draw
- 27%
- PAD
- 17%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 10 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 55% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Palermo's attack: better than ~88% of the teams in the league
- Palermo takes 2.38 points per game at home, the opponent 1.14 away
- Palermo takes 2.38 points per game at home against 1.3 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- The draw still weighs 27%: the outright win is not secured.
- On this league, our verified analyses held 62% for 72% announced (over 26): read the probability with caution.
The full analysis of Palermo — Padova
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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