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La Liga
Osasuna—Getafe
· Estadio El Sadar
Final score
1–0
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
67%Under 2.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 67% means the opposite outcome happens about 33% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- OSA
- 38%
- Draw
- 32%
- GET
- 30%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 15 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 61% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Osasuna takes 1.83 points per game at home, the opponent 1.27 away
- Getafe has 4 declared absences
- Osasuna takes 1.83 points per game at home against 0.65 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- Osasuna has lost 5 of its last 6
- Getafe has won 5 of the last 8 meetings
The full analysis of Osasuna — Getafe
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.