Lire cette analyse en français
La Liga
Osasuna—Espanyol
· Estadio El Sadar
Final score
0–2
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
77%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 77% means the opposite outcome happens about 23% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- OSA
- 44%
- Draw
- 28%
- ESP
- 28%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 51% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Osasuna takes 1.85 points per game at home, the opponent 1.07 away
- Espanyol has 6 declared absences
- Osasuna takes 1.85 points per game at home against 0.9 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- Osasuna has 8 declared absences
- 4 draws in the last 8 meetings — a historically tight fixture
The full analysis of Osasuna — Espanyol
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.