Lire cette analyse en français
Primera A
Once Caldas—Deportes Tolima
· Estadio Palogrande
What the model reads
65%Under 2.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 65% means the opposite outcome happens about 35% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- ONC
- 35%
- Draw
- 31%
- DEP
- 34%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 22 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 58% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Once Caldas takes 1.67 points per game at home against 1.03 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- Deportes Tolima's attack: better than ~84% of the teams in the league
- Deportes Tolima has won 5 of the last 8 meetings
The full analysis of Once Caldas — Deportes Tolima
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.