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Ligue 1
Olympique Akbou—USM Alger
· Stade des Martyrs
What the model reads
68%Under 2.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 68% means the opposite outcome happens about 32% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- OLY
- 45%
- Draw
- 31%
- ALG
- 24%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 64% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Olympique Akbou takes 2.1 points per game at home, the opponent 0.81 away
- Olympique Akbou takes 2.1 points per game at home against 0.95 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- 3 draws in the last 4 meetings — a historically tight fixture
- USM Alger takes 1.5 points per game at home against 0.81 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The full analysis of Olympique Akbou — USM Alger
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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