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Super League 1
OFI—Asteras Tripolis
· Pankritio Stadium
What the model reads
78%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 78% means the opposite outcome happens about 22% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- CRE
- 42%
- Draw
- 29%
- AST
- 29%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 52% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Asteras Tripolis's defence: tighter than only ~34% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- OFI takes 1.48 points per game at home, the opponent 0.82 away
- OFI has won 4 of its last 6
What could mislead us
- OFI's defence: tighter than only ~22% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Asteras Tripolis has won 5 of the last 8 meetings
The full analysis of OFI — Asteras Tripolis
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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