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HNL
NK Varazdin—NK Osijek
· Gradski stadion Varazdin
What the model reads
83%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 83% means the opposite outcome happens about 17% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- NK
- 30%
- Draw
- 31%
- OSI
- 39%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 59% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- NK Varazdin takes 2 points per game at home, the opponent 1.04 away
- NK Varazdin takes 2 points per game at home against 1.07 away — two different sides depending on the ground
- NK Varazdin has won 4 of its last 6
What could mislead us
- 4 draws in the last 8 meetings — a historically tight fixture
- NK Osijek has won 5 of its last 6
The full analysis of NK Varazdin — NK Osijek
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.