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HNL
NK Slaven Belupo—HNK Gorica
· Gradski stadion Ivan Kušek Apaš
Final score
2–0
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
75%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 75% means the opposite outcome happens about 25% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- BEL
- 40%
- Draw
- 29%
- HNK
- 31%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
What supports it
- HNK Gorica's defence: tighter than only ~32% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- NK Slaven Belupo takes 1.46 points per game at home, the opponent 0.85 away
- NK Slaven Belupo takes 1.46 points per game at home against 0.85 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- NK Slaven Belupo's defence: tighter than only ~14% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- NK Slaven Belupo has lost 5 of its last 6
The full analysis of NK Slaven Belupo — HNK Gorica
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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