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Ligue 1
Nice—Lille
· Allianz Riviera
What the model reads
81%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 81% means the opposite outcome happens about 19% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- NIC
- 38%
- Draw
- 30%
- LIL
- 32%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 56% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Nice takes 1.4 points per game at home against 0.67 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- Nice's defence: tighter than only ~14% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- 4 draws in the last 8 meetings — a historically tight fixture
The full analysis of Nice — Lille
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.