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Liga Profesional Argentina
Newells Old Boys—Banfield
· Estadio Marcelo Bielsa
Final score
2–1
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
83%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 83% means the opposite outcome happens about 17% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- NEW
- 39%
- Draw
- 31%
- BAN
- 30%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
What supports it
- Banfield's defence: tighter than only ~9% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
What could mislead us
- Newells Old Boys's defence: tighter than only ~9% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Banfield takes 1.48 points per game at home against 0.83 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The full analysis of Newells Old Boys — Banfield
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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