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Premier League
Newcastle—Liverpool
· St James' Park
Final score
2–2
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
67%Both teams to score
A probability, not a prediction: 67% means the opposite outcome happens about 33% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- NEW
- 36%
- Draw
- 25%
- LIV
- 39%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
What supports it
- Newcastle's attack: better than ~73% of the teams in the league
- Liverpool's defence: tighter than only ~22% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Newcastle takes 1.88 points per game at home, the opponent 1.17 away
What could mislead us
- Liverpool's attack: better than ~88% of the teams in the league
- Newcastle has 8 declared absences
The full analysis of Newcastle — Liverpool
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.