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Premier League
Newcastle—Hull City
· St. James' Park
What the model reads
67%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 67% means the opposite outcome happens about 33% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- NEW
- 66%
- Draw
- 20%
- HUL
- 14%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 47% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Newcastle's attack: better than ~78% of the teams in the league
- Newcastle takes 1.92 points per game at home against 1.15 away — two different sides depending on the ground
- Newcastle scores 2.1 goals per game at home
What could mislead us
- Newcastle's defence: tighter than only ~32% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Hull City has won 5 of its last 6
The full analysis of Newcastle — Hull City
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.