Lire cette analyse en français
Major League Soccer
New York Red Bulls—St. Louis City
· Sports Illustrated Stadium
What the model reads
58%Both teams to score
A probability, not a prediction: 58% means the opposite outcome happens about 42% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- YOR
- 55%
- Draw
- 23%
- ST.
- 22%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 45% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- St. Louis City's defence: tighter than only ~28% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- New York Red Bulls takes 1.63 points per game at home, the opponent 0.88 away
- New York Red Bulls takes 1.63 points per game at home against 0.8 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- New York Red Bulls's defence: tighter than only ~25% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- The draw still weighs 23%: the outright win is not secured.
The full analysis of New York Red Bulls — St. Louis City
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.