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Major League Soccer
New York Red Bulls—Chicago Fire
· Sports Illustrated Stadium
Final score
1–1
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
66%Both teams to score
A probability, not a prediction: 66% means the opposite outcome happens about 34% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- YOR
- 44%
- Draw
- 23%
- CHI
- 33%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
What supports it
- Chicago Fire has 8 declared absences
- New York Red Bulls takes 1.74 points per game at home against 0.81 away — two different sides depending on the ground
- New York Red Bulls scores 1.9 goals per game at home
What could mislead us
- Chicago Fire's attack: better than ~92% of the teams in the league
- New York Red Bulls's defence: tighter than only ~28% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
The full analysis of New York Red Bulls — Chicago Fire
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.