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Major League Soccer
New York City FC—New York Red Bulls
· Yankee Stadium
What the model reads
54%Both teams to score
A probability, not a prediction: 54% means the opposite outcome happens about 46% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- NEW
- 50%
- Draw
- 25%
- YOR
- 25%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 47% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- New York Red Bulls's defence: tighter than only ~25% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- New York City FC takes 1.62 points per game at home, the opponent 0.8 away
- New York Red Bulls has lost 4 of its last 6
What could mislead us
- New York Red Bulls takes 1.63 points per game at home against 0.8 away — two different sides depending on the ground
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of New York City FC — New York Red Bulls
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.