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Major League Soccer
Nashville SC—Toronto FC
· Geodis Park
What the model reads
58%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 58% means the opposite outcome happens about 42% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- NAS
- 58%
- Draw
- 23%
- TOR
- 19%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 50% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Nashville SC's attack: better than ~87% of the teams in the league
- Nashville SC takes 2.46 points per game at home, the opponent 1 away
- Nashville SC takes 2.46 points per game at home against 1.29 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- The draw still weighs 23%: the outright win is not secured.
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of Nashville SC — Toronto FC
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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