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Major League Soccer
Nashville SC—FC Cincinnati
· Geodis Park
Final score
4–0
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
77%Over 1.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 77% means the opposite outcome happens about 23% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- NAS
- 61%
- Draw
- 22%
- FC
- 17%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 50% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Nashville SC's attack: better than ~82% of the teams in the league
- FC Cincinnati's defence: tighter than only ~35% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Nashville SC takes 2.44 points per game at home, the opponent 1.59 away
What could mislead us
- FC Cincinnati's attack: better than ~78% of the teams in the league
- Nashville SC has 4 declared absences
The full analysis of Nashville SC — FC Cincinnati
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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