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Serie B
Modena—Empoli
· Stadio Alberto Braglia
What the model reads
56%Both teams to score
A probability, not a prediction: 56% means the opposite outcome happens about 44% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- MOD
- 35%
- Draw
- 29%
- EMP
- 36%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 10 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 46% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Modena's attack: better than ~73% of the teams in the league
- Empoli's defence: tighter than only ~17% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Modena takes 1.4 points per game at home, the opponent 0.73 away
What could mislead us
- On this league, our verified analyses held 62% for 72% announced (over 26): read the probability with caution.
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of Modena — Empoli
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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