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Serie A
Mirassol—Vitoria
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What the model reads
63%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 63% means the opposite outcome happens about 37% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- MIR
- 63%
- Draw
- 20%
- VIT
- 17%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 48% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Mirassol's attack: better than ~81% of the teams in the league
- Vitoria's defence: tighter than only ~27% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Mirassol takes 1.94 points per game at home, the opponent 0.5 away
What could mislead us
- Mirassol has 12 declared absences
- Vitoria takes 1.87 points per game at home against 0.5 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The full analysis of Mirassol — Vitoria
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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