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Serie A
Mirassol—Palmeiras
· Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia
Final score
1–1
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
54%Both teams to score
A probability, not a prediction: 54% means the opposite outcome happens about 46% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- MIR
- 38%
- Draw
- 25%
- PAL
- 37%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 47% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Mirassol's attack: better than ~85% of the teams in the league
- Mirassol takes 1.97 points per game at home against 1 away — two different sides depending on the ground
- Mirassol scores 1.9 goals per game at home
What could mislead us
- Palmeiras's attack: better than ~94% of the teams in the league
The full analysis of Mirassol — Palmeiras
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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