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Serie A
Mirassol—Botafogo
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What the model reads
52%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 52% means the opposite outcome happens about 48% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- MIR
- 52%
- Draw
- 25%
- BOT
- 23%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 50% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Mirassol's attack: better than ~81% of the teams in the league
- Mirassol takes 1.94 points per game at home, the opponent 1.22 away
- Mirassol takes 1.94 points per game at home against 1 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- Botafogo's attack: better than ~90% of the teams in the league
The full analysis of Mirassol — Botafogo
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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