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Championship
Millwall—Bolton
· The Den
Final score
4–0
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
65%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 65% means the opposite outcome happens about 35% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- MIL
- 64%
- Draw
- 23%
- BOL
- 13%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 13 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 60% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Millwall takes 1.74 points per game at home against 1.13 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- Millwall has 16 declared absences
- 2 draws in the last 4 meetings — a historically tight fixture
The full analysis of Millwall — Bolton
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.