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Primera A
Millonarios—Deportivo Cali
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Final score
1–1
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
57%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 57% means the opposite outcome happens about 43% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- MIL
- 57%
- Draw
- 25%
- CAL
- 18%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 22 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 54% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Millonarios's attack: better than ~75% of the teams in the league
- Millonarios takes 1.82 points per game at home, the opponent 0.82 away
What could mislead us
- 4 draws in the last 8 meetings — a historically tight fixture
- The draw still weighs 25%: the outright win is not secured.
The full analysis of Millonarios — Deportivo Cali
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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