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Ligue 1
MC Oran—ES Setif
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What the model reads
84%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 84% means the opposite outcome happens about 16% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- ORA
- 42%
- Draw
- 30%
- SET
- 28%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 59% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- MC Oran's attack: better than ~81% of the teams in the league
- MC Oran takes 2.35 points per game at home, the opponent 0.65 away
- MC Oran takes 2.35 points per game at home against 1.05 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- ES Setif takes 1.95 points per game at home against 0.65 away — two different sides depending on the ground
- ES Setif has won 4 of its last 6
The full analysis of MC Oran — ES Setif
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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