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Ligue 1
MB Rouisset—USM Alger
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What the model reads
79%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 79% means the opposite outcome happens about 21% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- MB
- 41%
- Draw
- 29%
- ALG
- 30%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 53% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- MB Rouisset takes 1.93 points per game at home, the opponent 0.81 away
- MB Rouisset takes 1.93 points per game at home against 0.47 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- USM Alger takes 1.5 points per game at home against 0.81 away — two different sides depending on the ground
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of MB Rouisset — USM Alger
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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