Lire cette analyse en français
Serie B
Mantova—Sampdoria
· Stadio Danilo Martelli
What the model reads
53%Both teams to score
A probability, not a prediction: 53% means the opposite outcome happens about 47% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- MAN
- 44%
- Draw
- 29%
- SAM
- 27%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 10 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 50% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Mantova takes 1.76 points per game at home, the opponent 0.62 away
- Mantova takes 1.76 points per game at home against 0.96 away — two different sides depending on the ground
- Mantova has won 5 of its last 6
What could mislead us
- Mantova's defence: tighter than only ~22% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- On this league, our verified analyses held 62% for 72% announced (over 26): read the probability with caution.
The full analysis of Mantova — Sampdoria
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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