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Premier League
Manchester City—Sunderland
· Etihad Stadium
What the model reads
82%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 82% means the opposite outcome happens about 18% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- MCI
- 82%
- Draw
- 12%
- SUN
- 6%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 50% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Manchester City's attack: better than ~98% of the teams in the league
- Manchester City takes 2.5 points per game at home, the opponent 1.21 away
- Manchester City has won 4 of its last 6
What could mislead us
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of Manchester City — Sunderland
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.