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Allsvenskan
Malmo FF—Orgryte IS
· Eleda Stadion
What the model reads
79%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 79% means the opposite outcome happens about 21% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- MAL
- 79%
- Draw
- 14%
- ORG
- 7%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 45% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Malmo FF's attack: better than ~76% of the teams in the league
- Orgryte IS's defence: tighter than only ~8% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Malmo FF takes 1.41 points per game at home, the opponent 0.64 away
What could mislead us
- Malmo FF has 12 declared absences
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of Malmo FF — Orgryte IS
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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