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Premier League
Lokomotiv—Krylia Sovetov
· RZD Arena
What the model reads
64%Over 2.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 64% means the opposite outcome happens about 36% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- LOK
- 61%
- Draw
- 21%
- KRY
- 18%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 43% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Lokomotiv's attack: better than ~74% of the teams in the league
- Krylia Sovetov's defence: tighter than only ~18% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Lokomotiv takes 1.77 points per game at home, the opponent 0.7 away
What could mislead us
- 5 draws in the last 8 meetings — a historically tight fixture
- Krylia Sovetov takes 1.55 points per game at home against 0.7 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The full analysis of Lokomotiv — Krylia Sovetov
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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