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Primera A
Llaneros—Deportes Tolima
· Estadio Bello Horizonte “Rey Pelé”
Final score
1–2
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
66%Under 2.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 66% means the opposite outcome happens about 34% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- LLA
- 28%
- Draw
- 31%
- DEP
- 41%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 22 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 61% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What could mislead us
- Deportes Tolima's attack: better than ~84% of the teams in the league
- On this league, our verified analyses held 62% for 73% announced (over 34): read the probability with caution.
The full analysis of Llaneros — Deportes Tolima
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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