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Premier League
Leeds—Newcastle
· Elland Road
What the model reads
61%Both teams to score
A probability, not a prediction: 61% means the opposite outcome happens about 39% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- LEE
- 37%
- Draw
- 25%
- NEW
- 38%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 43% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Newcastle's defence: tighter than only ~32% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Leeds takes 1.84 points per game at home, the opponent 1.15 away
- Newcastle has 10 declared absences
What could mislead us
- Newcastle's attack: better than ~78% of the teams in the league
- Leeds has 6 declared absences
The full analysis of Leeds — Newcastle
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.