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Segunda División
Las Palmas—Burgos
· Estadio de Gran Canaria
What the model reads
67%Under 2.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 67% means the opposite outcome happens about 33% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- PAL
- 45%
- Draw
- 31%
- BUR
- 24%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 63% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What could mislead us
- 4 draws in the last 6 meetings — a historically tight fixture
- Burgos has won 4 of its last 6
The full analysis of Las Palmas — Burgos
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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