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Premiership
Kilmarnock—ST Mirren
· Rugby Park
Final score
0–1
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
80%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 80% means the opposite outcome happens about 20% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- KIL
- 45%
- Draw
- 28%
- MIR
- 27%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 55% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Kilmarnock takes 1.68 points per game at home, the opponent 1.17 away
- Kilmarnock takes 1.68 points per game at home against 0.63 away — two different sides depending on the ground
- Kilmarnock has won 5 of the last 8 meetings
What could mislead us
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of Kilmarnock — ST Mirren
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.