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Premiership
Kilmarnock—Heart Of Midlothian
· Rugby Park
What the model reads
40%Away win
A probability, not a prediction: 40% means the opposite outcome happens about 60% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- KIL
- 33%
- Draw
- 28%
- HEA
- 39%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 51% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Kilmarnock takes 1.36 points per game at home against 0.75 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- Heart Of Midlothian's attack: better than ~82% of the teams in the league
- Kilmarnock's defence: tighter than only ~4% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
The full analysis of Kilmarnock — Heart Of Midlothian
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.