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Eliteserien
KFUM Oslo—Aalesund
· KFUM Arena
What the model reads
66%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 66% means the opposite outcome happens about 34% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- KFU
- 58%
- Draw
- 23%
- AAL
- 19%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 47% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Aalesund's defence: tighter than only ~13% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Aalesund has 10 declared absences
- Aalesund concedes 1.9 goals per game away
What could mislead us
- KFUM Oslo has 14 declared absences
- The draw still weighs 23%: the outright win is not secured.
The full analysis of KFUM Oslo — Aalesund
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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