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Premier League
Karpaty—Veres Rivne
· Ukraina Stadium
What the model reads
77%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 77% means the opposite outcome happens about 23% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- KAR
- 44%
- Draw
- 28%
- VER
- 28%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 51% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Karpaty's attack: better than ~83% of the teams in the league
- Karpaty takes 1.57 points per game at home, the opponent 0.96 away
- Karpaty has won 4 of its last 6
What could mislead us
- 3 draws in the last 6 meetings — a historically tight fixture
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of Karpaty — Veres Rivne
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.