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Serie B
Juve Stabia—Pisa
· Stadio Romeo Menti
Final score
0–3
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
78%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 78% means the opposite outcome happens about 22% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- JUV
- 39%
- Draw
- 30%
- PIS
- 31%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 10 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 52% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Juve Stabia takes 1.9 points per game at home against 1.05 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- Pisa takes 2.26 points per game at home against 1.63 away — two different sides depending on the ground
- Pisa has won 3 of the last 5 meetings
The full analysis of Juve Stabia — Pisa
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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