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Serie B
Juve Stabia—Cesena
· Stadio Romeo Menti
What the model reads
76%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 76% means the opposite outcome happens about 24% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- JUV
- 43%
- Draw
- 30%
- CES
- 27%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 10 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 52% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Juve Stabia takes 1.81 points per game at home, the opponent 1.23 away
- Juve Stabia takes 1.81 points per game at home against 0.97 away — two different sides depending on the ground
- Juve Stabia has won 3 of the last 4 meetings
What could mislead us
- On this league, our verified analyses held 62% for 72% announced (over 26): read the probability with caution.
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of Juve Stabia — Cesena
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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