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K League 1
Jeonbuk Motors—Gwangju FC
· Jeonju World Cup Stadium
What the model reads
59%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 59% means the opposite outcome happens about 41% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- JEO
- 59%
- Draw
- 25%
- GWA
- 16%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 18 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 55% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Jeonbuk Motors's attack: better than ~89% of the teams in the league
- Gwangju FC's defence: tighter than only ~18% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Jeonbuk Motors takes 1.97 points per game at home, the opponent 1 away
What could mislead us
- The draw still weighs 25%: the outright win is not secured.
- On this league, our verified analyses held 50% for 66% announced (over 20): read the probability with caution.
The full analysis of Jeonbuk Motors — Gwangju FC
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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